Beyond Planning Ahead: Lessons on Foresight Evaluation

By: Samantha Cotter

In an increasingly complex and evolving policy landscape, evaluators are being asked to not only assess what has happened, but to know what comes next. Traditional evaluation methods are often grounded in retrospective analysis, however they can be insufficient for anticipating future changes and challenges, and incorporating a forward-looking approach into decision-making processes. Foresight offers inclusive, complementary approaches by equipping evaluators with tools to systematically explore possible futures and incorporate long-term thinking into evidence-building and decision-making. 

On April 7, 2026, the Data Foundation, in partnership with the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), hosted a webinar in their “Issues in Evaluation” series, Beyond Planning Ahead: Strategic Foresight for Evaluators. The event brought together leaders in evaluation and foresight to discuss how the two disciplines can mutually strengthen decision-making and policy outcomes. Sara Stefanik, Director of the Center for Evidence Capacity, and Dr. Val Caracelli, Senior Social Science Analyst with the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), led opening remarks. Speakers Dr. Virginia Chanley, a Senior Analyst with the GAO, and Dr. Annette L. Gardner, a Principal with ALGardner Consulting, each led presentations on public sector foresight practices before coming together for a panel moderated by Nate Varnell, Policy and Research Analyst for the Center for Evidence Capacity. 

Integrating Foresight into Evaluation Practice

A core theme of the discussion was the growing importance of integrating foresight into evaluation processes. Both speakers emphasized the importance of integrating forward-looking perspectives into evaluation to consider a range of plausible policy outcomes. Dr. Chanley highlighted how foresight methods, such as horizon scanning, scenario planning and trend analysis can identify emerging risks and opportunities. Dr. Gardner reinforced this point by noting that foresight is not about predicting a single outcome but rather about preparing for multiple possibilities. Rather than operating as a standalone system, foresight can be embedded into existing evaluation workflows. Panelists shared with the audience that starting to integrate foresight into practice could start as easily as adding future-oriented questions into evaluation design.

Foresight During Uncertainty

Traditional evaluation relies mainly on historical data, but in rapidly changing environments past trends cannot be solely relied on to predict future realities. To this end, panelists shared that an important feature of foresight work is encouraging dynamic uses of data that recognize limitations while still leveraging evidence to inform forward-looking insights within broader social, economic, or technological trends. 

Foresight requires the capacity and willingness to collect new kinds of data, and expand the type of data being collected beyond a narrow domain. Organizations are inclined to use a retrospective approach based on past data, as they may not believe they have the time and resources to invest in generating new data. Speakers emphasized the need for evaluators and decision-makers to allow for creativity with existing data while fostering an environment that acknowledges uncertainty and is willing to invest in exploratory work that brings in a larger scope of the issue area. Though not directly recommended in the webinar, some examples of new data being used in foresight evaluation involves looking to new sources such as web data and using AI to understand an increasingly complex environment.

Application and Approaches

Throughout the webinar, speakers shared examples of how foresight is already being integrated into evaluation contexts. At the GAO, for example, Dr. Chanley said that foresight techniques are being used to inform long-term strategic planning and identify emerging policy issues before they grow. Dr. Gardner also described the value of scenario planning and horizon scanning for designing policy interventions. Scenario planning can test interventions to better understand how they might perform under different conditions. Horizon scanning can  detect early signs of important trends or disruptions that would merit an adjustment in the intervention. Foresight plays a valuable role in the field of evaluation to inform the development of flexible and responsive policies that can adapt to changing conditions. 

The Field, and Its Future

As the policy environment continues to evolve, integrating foresight into evaluation practice is becoming increasingly vital. By combining rigorous evidence with forward-looking analysis, evaluators can help their organizations navigate uncertainty and design interventions that remain effective amid changing circumstances. Overall, the webinar underscores that moving beyond traditional evaluation frameworks requires both methodological innovation and cultural change.

Dr. Gardner outlined three tiers for building skills and capacity in foresight: 

• “foresight-interested” for those new to foresight but interested in learning, 
• “expanding methods toolkit” describes those looking to expand their evaluation decisions to include foresight methods, 
• and “foresight specialist” for evaluators who want to instruct on foresight constructs and methods. 

As evaluators continue to grapple with uncertainties, foresight offers a promising pathway for enhancing the relevance and impact of their work. 

The Beyond Planning Ahead: Strategic Foresight for Evaluators webinar, slides, and related materials can be accessed at no-cost at the event page.